tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20686335.post2949019739794444328..comments2023-07-28T07:47:21.081-05:00Comments on Chicagrafo: Is Intel a good investment?Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20686335.post-44379397664834647242008-01-25T13:35:00.000-06:002008-01-25T13:35:00.000-06:00Scientia, you said this:>My advice for you would b...Scientia, you said this:<BR/><BR/><< Frankly though I had been fairly familiar with Intel's behavior from Pentium through Prescott and AMD's behavior from K5 to K8. The Israeli team was a surprise, especially after the failure of the Indian team and Whitefield and the cancellation of Tejas. Also, AMD's purchase of ATI was a surprise as were the problems with K10. >><BR/><BR/>My advice for you would be to read <A HREF="http://chicagrafo.blogspot.com/2007/11/exploration-of-business-space.html" REL="nofollow">"Exploration of the Business Space"</A>: Intel always win in the end because it explores multiple options at the same time and strikes gold. AMD should have remained focused on doing the best it could with the resources it had, the single-die quadcore on underdeveloped process with a substantially different architecture, what I call the "Triple Challenge" is an adventure that is literally killing the company. I really took care to explain this argument in the article mentioned above. We both made a mistake in allowing us to be surprised by things that we should actually have been expecting. I know the article is long, but why don't you read it anyway and let me know if my recomendation was worth or not?Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16847784119837035473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20686335.post-27122180365211097942008-01-25T02:18:00.000-06:002008-01-25T02:18:00.000-06:00Don't feel bad about a misprediction. My crystal b...Don't feel bad about a misprediction. My crystal ball was great from 2003 until early 2006. However, since Intel came out with C2D I have missed the mark many times. I'm kind of hoping that I'll get back on track in 2008. Intel's gross margins for 2008 are worse than I expected while AMD's are better. This is the way my judgement used to work through 2005, slightly underestimating AMD and slightly overestimating Intel. Lately it has been the opposite with AMD performing worse than I have expected and Intel doing a bit better. Apparently this makes me an outrageous AMD fan. Or at least according to crowd that frequents roborat's blog.<BR/><BR/>Frankly though I had been fairly familiar with Intel's behavior from Pentium through Prescott and AMD's behavior from K5 to K8. The Israeli team was a surprise, especially after the failure of the Indian team and Whitefield and the cancellation of Tejas. Also, AMD's purchase of ATI was a surprise as were the problems with K10. I'm trying to regain my perspective but apparently if I don't shout "AMD sux; Intel rulz" every ten minutes I'm "just in denial".<BR/><BR/>AMD seems so low now that I would expect it to be a good investment. In other words, unless AMD goes bankrupt I don't see how the stock could drop much from where it is. Intel, I'm not sure. With Intel's margins going nowhere through 2008 I'm wondering if their stock will rise much. <BR/><BR/>I'm thinking that Intel could get a big shot in the arm if AMD is late with 45nm and Intel has a big hit with Nehalem. That would seem to put Intel in a very good position in 2009 with AMD a full year away from a competing architecture.Scientia from AMDZonehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11307174874527564058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20686335.post-20081568612121113742008-01-17T11:39:00.000-06:002008-01-17T11:39:00.000-06:00IBM is a service company and Intel a manufacturing...IBM is a service company and Intel a manufacturing one, alright, but it operates within the same market. If the market for Intel is bad, it will have to be for IBM too, that's my opinion. If you disagree, please reply with practical examples of market conditions that are good for IBM but not for Intel.<BR/><BR/>I think the x86 market can not track below the world economy, wherever the economy is good, the x86 prospers. The opposite is not so true, a recession in the world's economy hurts the x86 market but not at the beginning, x86 processors are an essential component of businesses.<BR/><BR/>I would say that the only real problem in the x86 market right now there is stagnation in the software market, most of significant new products are as bad as Vista, so, the market is undergoing deflation, but this has happened in the past.<BR/><BR/>I wrote the article minutes before the presentation of quarterly results. I don't feel there is anything to add other than the play of shorting the market and going long Intel is much better now: Year to date, Intel is 27% down, AMD 17%, the Nasdaq 11% and the Dow 7%; I can't see the reason why all of a sudden Intel is a much worse investment than the Nasdaq...Eddiehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16847784119837035473noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-20686335.post-34953557051810677462008-01-17T03:50:00.000-06:002008-01-17T03:50:00.000-06:00IBM is now more a service company - I would encour...IBM is now more a service company - I would encourage you to look at IBM's split between service revenue and semiconductor revenue before trying to do a comparison between IBM and Intel.<BR/><BR/>The key issue for Intel is overall CPU market growth - if the market doesn't grow, then Intel doesn't... while they may eat a bit into AMD's share it will likely only be if they decide to slug it out on pricing which in turn will hurt margin and stock price. (The market perception of the value of increased market share will likely be offset by the weaker margins which will likely be needed to get those gains)<BR/><BR/>So, in my opinion, a buy/sell on Intel is more or less a judgement on how you think the x86 CPU market in general will fare. Margins will improve with the migration to 45nm, but if the market is stagnant Intel will be in price cutting mode to eat into AMD market share for growth. If you expect the CPU market to grow, then Intel is significantly undervalued.<BR/><BR/>Just don't try to compare IBM's outlook with Intel's - IBM is now in a different market.<BR/><BR/>That said after a 50% earnings growth YoY, and a forecast that while under the previous giddy market expectations for Q1, is still relatively healthy, the Intel stock price hit is likely more severe than reality. Though in a bear market perception = reality.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com